Piracy Risk Modeling and Assessment

We have developed a set of techniques to model and assess the piracy risk based on historic evidence and planned vessel routes.

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Piracy Risk Map

At the core of our approach are techniques for estimating piracy risk in different areas of the world. For that, we use kernel density estimation methods and apply them on historic data about reported piracy incidents (see Maritime Domain Data). Below, we see risk model obtained on incident data from 2005-2010 and Gaussian kernels.

Static risk map

The above static risk map based on historic incident data can be further enhanced by incorporating situational, dynamic context data, in particular the location of transiting ad potentially also patrolling vessels. The resulting dynamic risk map then evolves in time and reflects the overall risk with respect to the present situation.

Dynamic risk map

Risk maps can be directly used to assess the situation in the Gulf of Aden. Risk maps, however, do not anticipate the future response of the pirates to any measure taken based on the current risk estimation. It is therefore not recommended to use risk maps to deploy patrolling vessels. A more suitable, game-theoretic approach is described in the section about Secure Transit.

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Risk Map-based Patrol Deployment

We use Vector Quantization-based LBG algorithm to deploy naval warships in the Northern Indian Ocean. We use a shipping density map as the input data for the algorithm. The map is created from the simulated merchant vessel traffic through the area. The algorithm works with an arbitrary density map and can be easily used to deploy patrols in any location.

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Route Risk Assessment

The risk map can be used for the assessment of risk along particular vessel routes. The risk is calculated by integrating the risk distribution along the planned route. The output of route risk assessment gives information about risk level in different segment of the planned route (see below).

gx:track feature for risk modeling.

Publications

Papers

  • Ondrej Vanek and Ondrej Hrstka and Michal Pechoucek: Improving Group Transit Schemes to Minimize Negative Effects of Maritime Piracy. IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems (to appear). 2014.
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  • Ondrej Vanek and Michal Pechoucek: Dynamic Group Transit Scheme for Corridor Transit. In Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Modeling, Simulation and Applied Optimization (ICMSAO). IEEE Press, 2013.
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  • Ondrej Vanek and Michal Jakob and Ondrej Hrstka and Michal Pechoucek: Agent-based Model of Mariime Traffic in Piracy-affected Waters. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies.. 2013, vol. 36, p. 157–176. ISSN 0968-090X.
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  • Michal Jakob and Ondrej Vanek and Ondrej Hrstka and Michal Pechoucek: Agents vs. Pirates: Multi-Agent Simulation and Optimization to Fight Maritime Piracy. In 12th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems. 2012.
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  • Ondrej Vanek: Security Games with Mobile Patrollers (Extended Abstract). In Proceedings of 10th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS). 2011.
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  • Ondrej Vanek, Michal Pechoucek, Michal Jakob, Branislav Bosansky a Viliam Lisy: Agentni simulaci proti somalskym piratum. Scientific American, Czech Edition. 2011.
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  • Ondrej Vanek, Michal Jakob, Ondrej Hrstka, and Michal Pechoucek: AgentC: Agent-based System for Securing Maritime Transit (Demonstration). In Proceedings of The 10th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems. 2011.
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  • Ondrej Vanek and Michal Jakob and Viliam Lisy and Branislav Bosansky and Michal Pechoucek: Iterative Game-theoretic Route Selection for Hostile Area Transit and Patrolling. In Tenth International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems. 2011.
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  • Michal Jakob and Ondrej Vanek and Michal Pechoucek: Using Agents to Improve International Maritime Transport Security. IEEE Intelligent Systems. 2011, vol. 26, p. 90-96. ISSN 1541-1672.
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  • Ondrej Hrstka and Ondrej Vanek: Optimizing Group Transit in the Gulf of Aden. In Proceedings of 15th International Student Conference on Electrical Engineering (POSTER). 2011.
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  • Branislav Bosansky, Viliam Lisy, Michal Jakob and Michal Pechoucek: Computing Time-Dependent Policies for Patrolling Games with Mobile Targets. Tenth International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems. 2011.
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  • Ondrej Vanek and Branislav Bosansky and Michal Jakob and Michal Pechoucek: Transiting Areas Patrolled by a Mobile Adversary. In Proceedings of 2010 IEEE Conference on Compuattional Intelligence and Games. 2010.
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  • Michal Jakob and Ondrej Vanek and Stepan Urban and Petr Benda and Michal Pechoucek: Employing Agents to Improve the Security of International Maritime Transport. In Proceedings of AAMAS 2010 Workshop on Agents In Traffic and Transportation. 2010.
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  • Stepan Urban and Michal Jakob and Michal Pechoucek: Probabilistic modeling of mobile agents' trajectories. In Proceedings of the International Workshop on Agents and Data Mining Interaction (ADMI 2010). 2010.
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  • Michal Jakob and Ondrej Vanek and Stepan Urban and Petr Benda and Michal Pechoucek: AgentC: Agent-based Testbed for Adversarial Modeling and Reasoning in the Maritime Domain (Demo). In Proceedings of The Ninth International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems. 2010.
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  • Ondrej Vanek: Agent-based Simulation of the Maritime Domain. In POSTER 2010, 14th International Student Conference on Electrical Engineering. CVUT, Fakulta elektrotechnicka, 2010.
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  • Ondrej Vanek: Agent-based Simulation of the Maritime Domain. Acta Polytechnica. 2010, vol. 50, p. 94-99.
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Books

  • Ondrej Vanek and Michal Jakob and Michal Pechoucek: Using Data-Driven Simulation for Analysis of Maritime Piracy. In Prediction and Recognition of Piracy Efforts Using Collaborative Human-Centric Information Systems. IOS Press, 2013, p. 109-116.
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Other

  • Ondrej Vanek: Computational Methods for Transportation Security. . 2013.
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  • Ondrej Vanek, Michal Jakob, Ondrej Hrstka, and Michal Pechoucek: Agent-based System for Securing Maritime Transit (May 2011). . 2011.
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Reports

  • Michal Jakob and Ondrej Vanek and Branislav Bosansky and Ondrej Hrstka and Vojtech Krizek and Stepan Urban and Petr Benda and Michal Pechoucek: Adversarial Modeling and Reasoning in the Maritime Domain - Year 2 Report. . 2010.
    BiBTeX | PDF (26)
  • Michal Jakob and Ondrej Vanek and Stepan Urban and Petr Benda and Michal Pechoucek: Adversarial Modeling and Reasoning in the Maritime Domain (Year 1 Report). . 2009.
    BiBTeX | PDF (57)
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